Despite ongoing national economic uncertainty, Western North Carolina’s homebuilding industry remains on solid ground and is positioned to outperform many markets across the country.
That was the central message from national real estate market research expert Väike O’Grady, who spoke to more than 150 members at the Builders Association of the Blue Ridge Mountains’ Annual Meeting on January 15 at Sierra Nevada Brewing’s taproom. O’Grady’s presentation offered a clear-eyed look at national challenges while underscoring why WNC continues to stand out as a resilient and opportunity-rich market.
Below are eight key takeaways from her presentation and what they mean for BABRM members.
All data and projections are drawn from O’Grady’s presentation at the BABRM Annual Meeting.
1. National headwinds remain, but WNC holds a competitive advantage.
Consumer confidence remains low, inflation continues to pressure household budgets, and mortgage rates are unlikely to dip much below 6% this year. Even so, O’Grady noted that WNC is better positioned than many regions.
The area continues to attract buyers from across the country, insurance markets are more stable than in coastal states such as Florida, and hurricane recovery efforts are moving forward quickly, all of which support ongoing housing demand.
2. North Carolina’s economic fundamentals continue to outperform.
North Carolina’s economy remains a bright spot nationally. Year-over-year employment growth in the state is running at 1.7%, compared to 0.6% for the U.S. overall. Personal income in North Carolina also grew by 3.9% in the second quarter of 2025, outpacing the national rate of 2.6%.
Together, these trends are helping sustain a more resilient buyer base and providing a stronger foundation for long-term market stability.
3. Homebuyer demographics are shifting in ways that favor adaptability.
Significant demographic changes are reshaping housing demand nationwide. Households headed by people over age 60 are projected to decline sharply, falling from 52 million in 2025 to just 19 million by 2045. At the same time, young adult households—those led by people under 30—are projected to grow dramatically, increasing from 15 million in 2025 to 38 million by 2045.
These shifts are already influencing the types of homes buyers want and can afford, driving increased demand for flexible floor plans, smaller footprints, and housing options designed to meet the needs of younger buyers and evolving lifestyles.
4. Affordability continues to shape housing supply decisions.
Affordability remains one of the biggest constraints on industry growth. In response, builders across the country are increasing their focus on townhomes and smaller custom homes as a way to deliver attainable housing for middle-income buyers.
5. The “halfback” migration trend is gaining momentum.
The “halfback” phenomenon—where residents move from northern states to Florida and later relocate halfway back north—is accelerating. Rising insurance costs, increasing hurricane risk, and extreme heat in Florida are pushing more buyers to consider the Carolinas, with WNC continuing to benefit from this migration pattern.
6. Remodeling is emerging as a powerful growth engine.
Higher mortgage rates have changed homeowner behavior. Rather than giving up historically low interest rates, many homeowners are choosing to stay in place and invest in renovations and upgrades. As a result, the remodeling market is experiencing significant growth, creating strong opportunities for remodelers and design-build firms throughout the region.
7. Industry collaboration is strengthening local resilience.
Markets with strong collaboration recover faster, and WNC is proving that point. Since Hurricane Helene, the region’s building community has worked together in unprecedented ways. BABRM has played a key role in fostering communication, sharing best practices, and helping members navigate labor challenges and recovery efforts, strengthening the industry as a whole.
8. Building permit growth points to a stronger 2026 and 2027.
Looking ahead, O’Grady expects single-family building permits in the Asheville-area market to increase in the 7-11% range in 2026, with growth accelerating further in 2027, potentially reaching 16%.
For BABRM members, the takeaway is clear: While national conditions remain complex, WNC’s market fundamentals, collaborative industry culture, and continued in-migration position the region for sustained success in the years ahead.
Thank You to Our Annual Meeting Sponsors
BABRM extends its sincere thanks to the members and partners who helped make the 2026 Annual Meeting possible. Their support plays a critical role in bringing members together for education, connection, and forward-looking conversations about the future of Western North Carolina’s building industry.
- Event Sponsor: Edward Jones – Leslie J. Apple
- Featured Presentation Sponsor: Best Buy Metals, LLC
- Food Sponsor: Cason Builders Supply
We also thank our Table Top Sponsors: Advanced Business Equipment, Build Modular, Carter Lumber, Designing Spaces by Lyn, Flooring America WNC, HomeSource Design Center, Inc., loanDepot, ProSource Supply, and Sherwin-Williams.
BABRM is grateful for the continued investment of these sponsors and partners, whose involvement helps strengthen our industry and support meaningful member engagement across the region.
ICYMI: Read our recap of the 2026 BABRM Annual Meeting for highlights from the event and a look at how members came together to kick off the year.
